Man Utd reportedly submitted £100m bid for Declan Rice last summer; Arsenal also believed to be tracking England star; David Moyes confirms valuation; Roy Keane and Gary Neville have doubts over price tag; Rice goal involvements, passing, defending and progressive stats analysed
Tuesday 7 March 2023 10:35, UK
Manchester United reportedly submitted a £100m bid for West Ham captain Declan Rice last summer - but is he worth the price tag?
Speaking after the 3-1 defeat to Manchester United in the FA Cup on Wednesday, Roy Keane told ITV: "He has first got to focus on West Ham and doing well for the rest of the season, but I don't think he has been great this season.
"I don't think he has kicked on, for all the talk there has been about him - he needs to do a lot more. He doesn't score enough goals or get enough assists. I have been a fan of him, he is always fit, but I just want a little bit more from him.
"There is talk of him leaving for big money and competing with teams for trophies. Sometimes I see him play at West Ham, and he goes through the motions and he needs to do a lot more to match the top midfielders in the country."
Speaking to Sky Sports News, Gary Neville agreed with his former team-mate: "I love Declan Rice. Obviously, Declan knows the position, but when I look at world-class holding midfielders, and players of that type, because he doesn't score or assist enough goals, you're putting him into that category of more of a destroyer.
"[Then], you've then got to be someone who I think is highly competent on the ball and linking play, and having that knowledge of the subtleties of getting on the ball from the back four.
"I personally feel, at this moment in time, that Declan needs to go and work under a different set-up, he needs to drive forward in his career, he needs to go and play at a different club.
"That's nothing against West Ham or David Moyes. I think he's done a brilliant job with Declan Rice and he's had a great few years.
"I want him to have a great career and I think he's a brilliant lad, but I agree with some of Roy's points that I think there's a lot of growth, and a lot for Declan to do to get up to the levels of Casemiro, Rodri, and players at the top of the game in those positions.
"But for me, I wouldn't be spending £110m or £120m on Rice if I was Manchester United this summer. I would spend £50m-£60m on Declan Rice, but I wouldn't spend the figures being reported."
In terms of evolution, the graphic below highlights how Rice has evolved over the past six seasons, breaking into the first team as a right-sided centre-back in 2017/18 before adopting a defensive midfielder role.
Initially, Rice primarily patrolled areas inside his own half, spanning almost the width of the pitch. But, that coverage has faded and he is now focussed on his left-hand region - moving into the opposition half in equal measure.
So Rice has increasingly pushed farther upfield - but his goal involvements have stagnated somewhat.
The graphic below reveals how the majority of his shots have been fired from range with his two league goals coming from almost an identical spot - to the left of the D.
The 24-year-old has also only notched two league assists to date and ranks fourth at the club with 30 chances.
Of course, West Ham's broader slump this season plays a part: The Hammers were fourth in the league after 25 games last season with 44 goals on the board. This season, they sit 16th with 23 goals.
However, the West Ham skipper does trail behind players of fair comparison with only 18 goal involvements since 2017/18.
For context, James Ward-Prowse has conjured 59 in that time, followed by the likes of Ruben Neves (28), Ashley Westwood (27), Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Stuart Armstrong (25), John McGinn (23) and team-mate Tomas Soucek (22) - all from fewer minutes on the pitch.
However, Rice certainly doesn't disappoint defensively. The England international ranks second in the division this term in regaining possession in the middle third of the pitch, third for interceptions and fifth for recoveries in the defensive third.
Additionally, his burgeoning forays into opposition territory has contributed to 351 completed passes in the final third - the ninth-highest tally out of all Premier League players this campaign.
The chart below plots those key strengths against every player in the league this season and reveals Rice stands out on his own, with William Saliba, Idrissa Gueye, Tyler Adams and Rodri recording similar ratios in those three metrics.
The graphic below shows the total number of passes Rice has attempted this term by zonal area, emphasising how he is increasingly working in both halves down the left channel - while the passing sonar reveals his progressive passing style and an impressive accuracy rate.
Indeed, Rice ranks among the absolute elite when it comes to driving his side upfield: Ranking fourth among all Premier League players for progressive distance with the ball at his feet, behind only Tim Ream, Antonee Robinson and Rodri.
It increasingly appears to be a matter of when, not if, Rice leaves his boyhood club and joins a powerhouse giant - but question marks remain about reported price tags. Moyes himself has valued his captain at more than £100m.
The January transfer market arguably inflated prices for defensive midfielders, with Chelsea splashing a record-breaking £106.8m on Enzo Fernandez from Benfica.
But Rice only has one year left on his current deal at the London Stadium, with the club able to extend until 2025 and the Hammers will know Rice will command a premium price if they sell this summer.
